The Thinking  /  The Ledger  /  Reading 06
06 Financial × Technological × Risk #

When you buy an index, you're not buying diversification — you're increasingly buying concentration into one trade (AI/semiconductor).

Index Const Eff-N Top-10 AI-core Top-10% Largest
KOSPI (Korea) 828 7.0 64.5% 52.6% 90.4% Samsung Electronics 28.8%
DJIA (US, price-wtd) 30 21.2 55.1% 18.2% n/a Goldman Sachs 10.5%
Nifty 50 (India) 50 24.3 52.9% 0% 36.4% HDFC Bank 9.9%
NASDAQ-100 101 31.7 46.8% 57.1% 46.8% NVIDIA 8.4%
EURO STOXX 50 50 30.1 43.4% 16.7% 27.4% ASML 10.8%
S&P 500 504 43.5 39.1% 39.0% 64.4% NVIDIA 8.4%
MSCI EM 1,153 27.4 39.0% 37.4% 66.7% TSMC 15.6%
MSCI World 1,239 83.7 27.8% 29.7% 61.2% NVIDIA 5.8%
TOPIX (Japan) 1,636 105 23.7% 6.1% 79.0% MUFG 3.9%

Concentration measures computed by us from each index's own full constituent file. MIXED BASIS — read the per-row date: S&P 500, EURO STOXX 50, DJIA, MSCI World, MSCI EM, NASDAQ-100 and KOSPI at 30-Sep-2026; Nifty 50 and TOPIX at 31-Aug-2026 (September primaries unpublished at capture). Eff-N = how many equal-weight stocks the index really behaves like. AI-core = share of the whole index in the AI complex — chips + hyperscalers, tracked as a live series per index.

The reading — and its limits Three exceptions prove the point — Japan (TOPIX) is genuinely diversified (behaves like 105 stocks, AI-core just 6.1%); India (Nifty) is concentrated but in the old economy (AI-core 0% — its "tech" is IT services, the AI-disrupted category, not AI hardware); and the Dow (DJIA) sits near the top by top-10 (55.1%, second only to Korea) but this is a price-weighting artefact — its weights track nominal share price, not company size, so two high-priced blue-chips (Goldman, Caterpillar) dominate and the AI names (Nvidia, Microsoft) are muted. The Dow's low AI-core (18.2%) does NOT mean it escapes the AI trade — it holds the same names, down-weighted by share-price accident. Everywhere else, buying the index increasingly means buying the same handful of AI names — and at September's close NVIDIA was back as the largest single holding in the S&P 500, NASDAQ-100 and MSCI World.

Method Effective-N and concentration measures computed by us from each index's own full constituent file (index-owner or full issuer-holdings files). AI-core on a named-basket definition (semiconductors + hyperscalers) that crosses GICS sectors.

Computed 30 September 2026

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