The Thinking  /  The Ledger  /  Reading 06
06 Financial × Technological × Risk #

When you buy an index, you're not buying diversification — you're increasingly buying concentration into one trade (AI/semiconductor).

Index Const Eff-N Top-10 AI-core Top-10% Largest
KOSPI (Korea) 830 6.9 64.9% 53.0% 90.9% Samsung Electronics 29.2%
DJIA (US, price-wtd) 30 20 55.4% 15.9% n/a Goldman Sachs 11.7%
Nifty 50 (India) 50 24 52.9% 0% 36.8% HDFC 10.6%
NASDAQ-100 103 33 46.1% 53.9% 46.1% Apple 8.2%
EURO STOXX 50 55 33 41.1% 14.0% 28.7% ASML 8.7%
S&P 500 505 48 37.2% 35.7% 62.5% Apple 7.7%
MSCI EM 1,190 32 35.5% 31.9% 65.2% TSMC 14.9%
MSCI World 1,273 94 26.1% 26.7% 59.7% Apple 5.5%
TOPIX (Japan) 1,638 107 23.2% 8.0% 79.2% MUFG 3.6%

concentration measures, computed by us from each index's own full constituent file (July basis) Eff-N = how many equal-weight stocks the index really behaves like. AI-core = share of the whole index in the AI complex — chips + hyperscalers, now tracked as a live series per index.

The reading — and its limits Three exceptions prove the point — Japan (TOPIX) is genuinely diversified (behaves like 107 stocks, AI-core just 8.0%); India (Nifty) is concentrated but in the old economy (AI-core 0% — its "tech" is IT services, the AI-disrupted category, not AI hardware); and the Dow (DJIA) sits near the top by top-10 (55.4%, second only to Korea) but this is a price-weighting artefact — its weights track nominal share price, not company size, so two high-priced blue-chips (Goldman, Caterpillar) dominate and the AI names (Nvidia, Microsoft) are muted. The Dow's low AI-core (15.9%) does NOT mean it escapes the AI trade — it holds the same names, down-weighted by share-price accident. Everywhere else, buying the index increasingly means buying the same handful of AI names. (July: the AI-hardware pullback trimmed AI-core in six of nine indices and lifted Apple back above Nvidia as the largest single holding in the S&P, NASDAQ and MSCI World — the concentration stands, but the trade breathes.)

Method Effective-N and concentration measures computed by us from each index's own full constituent file (index-owner or full issuer-holdings files). AI-core on a named-basket definition (semiconductors + hyperscalers) that crosses GICS sectors.

Computed 1 August 2026

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