Geopolitical step-function shocks, made visible: crude moved more than 5% in a day on 23 days in 2026.
23 days
WTI crude moved >5% in a single day in 2026 YTD (through 31-Jul) — up from 18 through mid-June; the count kept building
WTI daily closes, computed by us, 2026 through 31-Jul. The frequency of large discontinuous moves is itself a signature of a non-stationary regime.
The reading — and its limits
Crude's large daily moves are geopolitically-driven step-functions — the extreme becoming ordinary in a commodity the real economy runs on. Shared evidence for the Risk reset (the frequency of discontinuous moves) and the Geopolitical reset (the driver of the shocks).
Method Count of trading days with a >5% WTI close-to-close daily move, 2026 YTD through 31-Jul, computed by us.
Computed 31 July 2026