The Thinking  /  The Ledger  /  Reading 14
14 Risk #

The safe-haven metals have turned volatile — silver is having its most volatile year on record.

Large daily moves Silver >5% Gold >3%
2008 (GFC) 27 35
2011 31 9
2014–2019 (the calm) 0–1/yr 0–1/yr
2020 (COVID) 14 8
2022–2025 (calm again) 2–3/yr 0–6/yr
2026 (YTD → annualised) 28 → ~62 11 → ~24
The reading — and its limits Silver's 2026 pace (~62 annualised) is the most on record (past 2011's 31 and 2008's 27); gold (~24) is on pace for second only to 2008. The calm was real and prolonged — which is what makes 2026's jump a genuine break, not noise. This is about the frequency of large moves, not their scale (2008 and 2020 had bigger single-day peaks).

Method LBMA/ICE official benchmark fixings (primary), fix-to-fix daily moves, full continuous 2005–2026, computed by us; corroborated by Yahoo futures. 2026 is YTD through 15-Jun; the annualised figures project the current pace across a full year.

Computed 22 June 2026

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