The 60/40 portfolio is no longer valid — it was never universal, and the regime that supported it has turned.
| Market | pre-2022 | 2022-on | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| US | −0.34 | +0.11 | inverted hard — bonds now fall with equities |
| UK | −0.17 | +0.14 | inverted hard |
| Germany | −0.27 | ~0.00 | hedge neutralised |
| Japan | −0.09 | −0.02 | no hedge to lose (rates pinned near zero) |
| India | +0.02 | +0.15 | never a 60/40-style hedge |
63-day rolling correlation of daily equity-index vs long-government-bond returns, per market, pre-2022 vs 2022-on, computed by us. US as-of 30-Sep-2026 (the load-bearing series world-N28-us-stock-bond-corr); the cross-market rows as-of the May-2026 computation (locked method). Bond legs are long-government-bond fund proxies, not cash bonds.
The reading — and its limits
The hedge inverted hard where it was deepest (US, UK) when the 2022 hiking cycle hit; it was neutralised in Germany and never existed in Japan or India. A correlation that "always held" turns out to have been a feature of one rate regime in a few markets — not a universal law the world could safely build a portfolio on. (Bond legs are long-government-bond fund proxies, not cash bonds.)
Method 63-day rolling correlation of daily equity-index vs long-government-bond returns, per market, pre-2022 vs 2022-on, computed by us from primary price series (same method as the US base reading). US refreshed to 30-Sep-2026.
Computed 30 September 2026