AI capital spending has quadrupled since GPT-4 (in Q2 2023).
$117bn → $448bn
Hyperscaler capex, 2023 → 2025. On company guidance, ~$725bn in 2026.
34% vs 32%
AI-era capital intensity has surpassed the dot-com peak — capex ~34% of revenue on 2026 guidance, against ~32% at the 2000 peak.
The reading — and its limits
The defensible claim is the growth, which the companies attribute to AI — not a clean “AI capex” figure (no hyperscaler reports it as a separate line; totals include warehouses, offices, other bets). The 34% is forward 2026 guidance; FY2025 actual aggregate intensity is ~23% — the crossing of the dot-com peak happens on 2026 guidance, stated as such.
Method Capex read from each firm's own SEC filings (Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle); growth rate and the dot-com-peak anchor (Morgan Stanley) corroborated.
Computed 22 June 2026