The risk reset is being priced — insurance premiums are rising far faster than their own history, across lines and across continents.
| Line | Where | Recent pace vs its own history |
|---|---|---|
| Motor | US | +8.8% vs +2.6% = 3.4x |
| Motor | EU | +6.0% vs +1.4% = 4.1x |
| Health | EU | +4.1% vs +2.3% = 1.8x |
| Health | India | +16%/yr (~3.5x inflation); the rise is price, not volume |
| Home | EU | +4.2% vs +2.4% = 1.7x |
India's standalone health insurers pay back just 69 paise per rupee of premium, vs 100+ for public insurers — a gap held six straight years.
The reading — and its limits
The same regime break shows up across two statistical authorities and two continents — motor sharpest (3.4-4.1x), health and home both clearly accelerating. The US homeowners line is absent because US CPI folds it into shelter (which is why State Farm's home repricing doesn't show in US inflation — the EU dwelling series fills that gap). The US health-insurance CPI is deliberately not used — its methodology produces wild swings (−27% in one year) and isn't reliable. India's public-vs-private payout gap is a persistent level, not a decline; India FY25-26 figures are provisional pending the next IRDAI report.
Method US from BLS, EU from Eurostat (motor / health / home), India from IRDAI Annual Reports + MoSPI — all read directly. "Pace" = recent (2022-25) annual rate vs the 2006-19 average.
Computed 1 August 2026