The price of money has doubled — and it isn't coming back down.
~2.1x
the US 10-year yield today (4.30%) against its 2012-2021 average (2.04%)
~8.5x
the US 10-year's rise from its 0.52% COVID-era low to 4.46% now
3 years
the US 10-year has held above 4%, even as the Fed cut 175bp
The reading — and its limits
"Doubled" is measured against the 2012-2021 decade average; against the longer 2010s it is ~1.85x, so the window is stated. The deeper point is not the level but the persistence: the long end rose through an entire Fed easing cycle, and the Fed's own convergence-to-2% forecasts have missed six years running. Two independent witnesses — the bond market and the forecaster's own record — say the same thing: a re-based regime, not a cycle.
Method Annual-average and current US 10-year Treasury yields, computed by us from the US Treasury's own daily par-yield series (1990-2026). The policy-rate cut is the Fed's path over Sep-2024 → Jun-2026.
Computed 1 August 2026