The price of money has doubled — and it isn't coming back down.
~2.6x
the US 10-year yield (5.29%, 30-Sep-2026) against its 2012-2021 average (2.04%)
~10x
the US 10-year's rise from its 0.52% COVID-era low to 5.29%
3 years above 4% — now above 5%
the US 10-year has averaged above 4% in each of the last three years and in September 2026 closed a month above 5% for the first time since the easing cycle began in Sep-2024 — through 175bp of Fed cuts, and as the Fed turned to its first hike (Sep-2026)
The reading — and its limits
"Doubled" is measured against the 2012-2021 decade average — on the September level it is ~2.6x, more than doubled; against the longer 2010s it is ~2.2x, so the window is stated. The deeper point is not the level but the persistence: the long end rose through an entire Fed easing cycle, and in the month the Fed finally reversed with its first hike, the 10-year closed at the high of the cycle (5.29% at 30-Sep-2026, the top of the Sep-2024-onward series) — on our reading, the market moved first and the Fed came round to it. The Fed's own convergence-to-2% forecasts have missed six years running. Two independent witnesses — the bond market and the forecaster's own record — say the same thing: a re-based regime, not a cycle.
Method Historical averages computed by us from the US Treasury's own daily par-yield series (1990-2026); the current level from the month-end 10-year series (30-Sep-2026). The Fed path: −175bp over Sep-2024 → Jun-2026, then the first hike (upper 3.75% → 4.00%, effective 17-Sep-2026).
Computed 30 September 2026