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12 Geopolitical × Financial #

Supply chains didn't shorten — they re-routed.

Share of US goods imports 2017 2024 Change
China 21.9% 13.8% −8.1pp
Mexico 13.1% 15.2% +2.1pp
Vietnam 2.0% 4.2% +2.2pp
India 2.1% 2.7% +0.6pp

Mexico overtook China as the #1 source of US imports in 2023.

The reading — and its limits China's true share fell by less than the US figures show — tariff-avoidance routes Chinese goods through Vietnam and Mexico, so part of their “rise” is Chinese value re-routed, not displaced. The data shows where goods ship from, not their ultimate origin. This is re-routing, not retreat.

Method Computed from UN Comtrade primary bilateral data (US reporter, full continuous 2017–2024), cross-validated against US-Census-based reads.

Computed 22 June 2026

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