Elevated volatility has become India's standing condition, not an acute shock.
| India VIX: % of days above 15 | |
|---|---|
| 2008–2016 (the norm) | 55–100%/yr |
| 2023 / 2024 / 2025 (the calm) | 10% / 30% / 25% |
| 2026 (to 15-Jun) | 61% |
Peak in 2026: ~28 — moderate amplitude, against 80-plus in the crisis years.
The reading — and its limits
2012 is the closest single-year analogue (86.5% of days above 15) — but 2012 sat among a run of high-volatility years (2008–2016). 2026 is different: a snap-back to elevated after the genuine calm of 2023–2025. The reading is about character — persistent and moderate-amplitude — not the absence of a trigger.
Method 2026 figure from NSE primary (the India VIX historical CSV, read directly); historical by-year series from Yahoo ^INDIAVIX. Cross-checked where they overlap (Yahoo 61.1% vs NSE 60.9%, identical peak).
Computed 22 June 2026