India's volatility ran hot through the first half — then fell quiet.
46.9%
of 2026 trading days had India VIX above 15 (67 of 143, 1-Jan to 31-Jul) — but every elevated day fell by 11-Jun; none since
| India VIX above 15 (share of days) | period |
|---|---|
| 55-100% / yr | 2008-2016 (the norm) |
| 10% / 30% / 25% | 2023 / 2024 / 2025 (the calm) |
| 61% | 2026 first half (to 15-Jun) |
| 47% | 2026 (to 31-Jul, after the summer calm) |
India VIX daily close, NSE primary through 31-Jul-2026 (validated against Yahoo INDIAVIX); peak 27.9 (30-Mar), mean 15.9. Moderate amplitude — peak ~28, not the 80-plus of the crisis years.
The reading — and its limits
The elevation was a first-half phenomenon — every one of the 67 elevated days fell by 11-Jun, then the summer calmed (VIX back to ~11-12). Whether that calm is the regime settling or a lull before the next spike is not yet resolved by the data — an open question, not a conclusion. The reading is about character (persistent-and-moderate in the first half), not the absence of a trigger (the US-Iran flare-up of late February is nameable).
Method Share of India VIX daily closes above 15 across 2026 trading days through 31-Jul (NSE India VIX historical, read directly; validated against Yahoo INDIAVIX — 61.1% vs 60.9% to 15-Jun, identical peak). Historical by-year series from Yahoo INDIAVIX.
Computed 31 July 2026