The Thinking  /  The Ledger  /  Reading 16
16 Risk #

Elevated volatility has become India's standing condition, not an acute shock.

India VIX: % of days above 15 value
2008-2016 (the norm) 55-100%/yr
2023 / 2024 / 2025 (the calm) 10% / 30% / 25%
2026 (to 15-Jun) 61%

Peak in 2026: ~28 (moderate amplitude, vs 80-plus in the crisis years). share of trading days with India VIX above 15

The reading — and its limits 2012 is the closest single-year analogue (86.5% of days above 15, peak ~29) — but 2012 sat among a run of high-volatility years (2008-2016 were almost all elevated). 2026 is different: it's a snap-back to elevated after the genuine calm of 2023-2025. The reading is about character — persistent and moderate-amplitude — not the absence of a trigger; the point is the moderate intensity (peak ~28, not 80-plus) and the sustained persistence.

Method 2026 figure from NSE primary (the India VIX historical CSV, read directly); historical by-year series from Yahoo ^INDIAVIX. Cross-checked where they overlap (Yahoo 61.1% vs NSE 60.9%, identical peak).

Computed 1 August 2026

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